Weekly Weather Outlook for Belize June 9 – 16, 2010

Dry, hot and humid conditions pressed across the country over the past week in an unseasonal stable and dry E’ly to ESE’ly airstream. No tropical wave made an entry over the NW Caribbean, while anticyclonic influence dominated the upper levels. Precipitable water values remain at less than 45 mm of water vapor over Yucatan, Belize and the western Caribbean during the past seven days. Kindly note that with increasing warmer ambient temperature resulting from the effects of an increasing greenhouse effects, we will be experiencing pronounced variability in extreme weather fluctuations (i.e. from extreme wet episodes to extreme, short-lived dry spells).

The Model projections for the next seven days indicate an increasing influx of moisture, as a short-wave, upper level trough moves over the area later on Thursday and Friday. Wave-like perturbations in the low level easterly flow will drift over the NW Caribbean and Belize as we move into the weekend, with a surface low establishing itself just offshore Belize by late Saturday and Sunday. This low will gradually move onshore by Monday, provoking a marked increase in convection. Cumulative rainfall rates will begin at 0.1-0.25mm per 6 hours within 36 hours, as of Thursday evening, increasing to rates of 0.25-0.50mm by early Saturday. Rainfall rates will reach 0.50-0.75mm/6 hours by late Saturday through Sunday, especially over central Belize. The rates will decrease gradually on Monday through Tuesday of next week. Precipitable water values are now on the increase across the region this morning, with a maximum of 60 mm just offshore NE Nicaragua.

Hence expect cloudy intervals later today through Thursday with a few showers and late afternoon isolated thunderstorms. This will moderate the heat and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over many areas by Friday through Sunday as the low forms offshore then moves inland over the weekend. Expect more showers redeveloping on Monday and Tuesday over many areas of the country.

Have a productive week, and don’t allow the oppressive humidity and heat to depress you. Drink healthy fluids and lots of water!

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