Tropical Storm Richard
Tropical Storm Richard
Predictions/Comments from Crown Weather / 4 am Belize time / Saturday
Richard continues to have a difficult time get its act together due to the combination of dry and higher shear just to the north. The low-level center seems to be disjointed from the mid-level center and this is why you are not seeing a rapid ramp up that had been forecast. Richard is forecast to track to the west or west-northwest and may actually track along the northern coast of Honduras. In fact, it is entirely possible for Richard to move completely inland over Honduras before it reaches Belize. All of the track model guidance have shifted to the south and a majority of the model guidance forecasts that Richard will dissipate before it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico. So, a track near or even over the northern coast of Honduras now seems likely today through tonight with a track into southern Belize becoming more likely by Sunday night.
As I have already mentioned, shear and dry air have been causing Richard to not strengthen at all. Even though the global models forecast more favorable environmental conditions over the next day or two, possible land interaction with Honduras may put a cap on this and it is not out of the question that Richard may not make it to hurricane strength, although all interests in Belize should prepare for hurricane conditions anyways, just in case this ramps up just before landfall and remains offshore of Honduras.
