NEMO Belize Extended Weather Report for Invest 93
Computer Models for Invest 93
Report on broad area of low pressure (Invest 93)
Latest details
Since the National Meteorological Service (NMS) has been tracking the progress of the strong tropical wave across the Caribbean for the past few days, this evening’s latest outlook represents the first indication of a positive development. The wave has now become a broad area of low pressure center just off the northeast coast on Honduras. The low pressure system has entered a region where conditions are very favourable for development.
Sea surface temperatures over the western Caribbean are averaging near 29°C/85°F.There is an upper level ridge situated just ahead of the surface low. Seems this feature will not diverge much from its current location. The latest model run (18Z) from the GFS forecast product suggests a sustained cyclonic rotation to the low pressure system during the coming days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts the system becoming a tropical depression before the reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. This forecast I tend to agree with. Since reports have been issued on the wave earlier this week, this is the first mention of a probability of 60%.
Time frame for development
As regards the time frame for the low pressure feature to reach Belize, my estimates would suggest the low center will head across the north coast of Honduras Friday morning and produce several showers and thunderstorms during its passage over southern and coastal Belize. Later on Friday the center of the low pressure center will emerge over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras and head northwest to west northwest. During its passage over the waters east of Belize, the chances for further development appear quite good. How much development is a very difficult issue.
Using the guidance from the GFS model product, it seems the system will spend the greater part of Friday afternoon through Saturday morning heading northwest for the extreme northern part of Belize as a well formed low (tropical depression/storm?).The low center should reach the coast of the Southern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday afternoon or evening. Whatever level of development the system attains during this time, will probably hold true till landfall.
Rainfall estimates.
Rainfall estimates from the GFS and NAM model products suggest most rainfall will occur initially over southern and coastal Belize through Friday. Rainfall estimates on my part range between 35 to 45mm for coastal Belize with 10 to 20mm elsewhere. These amounts will drop somewhat for coastal regions (20-30mm) and inland region (5-15mm) on Saturday. On Sunday the focus shifts to northern western Belize where rainfall estimates range from 30-50mm for inland Belize and 10-20mm for coastal Belize. On Sunday rainfall will continue over inland Belize(ranging between 25 -35mm).
Forecaster: F. Tench Jr.
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