Oct 20th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Invest 99L a threat to develop

Weather Underground | Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation.

Wind shear is a moderate 10 – 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west.

However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.

Oct 19th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 19th

General Situation: Relatively Moist and unstable conditions dominate. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with some cloudy spells today and tonight. A few Isolated showers will occur. Winds: Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy.  Outlook: Through Thursday: Similar weather conditions. Highs: 31°C/88°F Lows: 22°C/72°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a large low pressure system about midway between Honduras and the Cayman Islands. There is a medium chance of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves towards the north-northwest at 5 to 10mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next couple of days.

Oct 18th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 18th

General Situation: Relatively Moist conditions exist. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy spells today and tonight. Isolated showers increase this evening. Winds: Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy.  Outlook: Through Wednesday: A few showers will affect the country. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 24°C/75°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Conditions could become favorable for some development before it begins to interact with land in a day or two. There is a low chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. A low pressure area about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has a low chance for development during the next 48 hours.

Oct 16th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 16th

General Situation: Mostly fair and dry conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy with some sunny spells today and partially cloudy and cool tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: Northwest at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy.  Outlook: Through Monday: Cloudy skies with a few coastal showers. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 22°C/72°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: An area of showers and thunderstorms is occurring over the southwest Caribbean Sea. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts northward. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Oct 15th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 15th

General Situation: Mostly fair conditions will continue over the next few days. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy with some sunny spells today and partially cloudy and cool tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: Northwest at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate.  Outlook: Through Sunday: Continuing mainly fair weather with a few showers along Southern and coastal areas. Highs: 32°C/89°F  Lows: 22°C/72°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Tropical depression Paula was centered near 23.1N 80.2W or about 65mls east of Veradero, Cuba. Paula was moving to the East at 14mph with maximum winds of 35mph. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea has a low chance for development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48hrs as it remains almost stationary. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48hrs.

Oct 14th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 14th

General Situation: Mostly fair conditions will continue over the next few days. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: Northwest at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Moderate.  Outlook: Through Saturday: Generally fair weather with a slight increase in showers along Northern coastal areas on Friday. Highs: 32°C/90°F  Lows: 20°C/68°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am Hurricane Paula was centered near 22.7 N 84.5 W or about 45 miles west of Puerto Esperanza. Maximum winds were 75 mph and Paula was moving to the NE at 5 mph.

Oct 12th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 12th

General Situation: Hurricane Paula over the Northwest Caribbean. 24hr Forecast: Generally cloudy skies, isolated showers along coastal areas. Winds: North to Northwest at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy.  Outlook: Through Thursday: Generally cloudy skies with a slight increase in showers along Northern coastal areas. Highs: 31°C/87°F  Lows: 22°C/72°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am the center of hurricane Paula was located near 18.1N and 85.4W or about 190miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving NW at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone is not expected during the next 48 hrs.

Oct 12th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Hurricane Paula

Editor’s Note: since this article was written Paula has moved from a Tropical Storm to a Category 1 Hurricane. NEMO has discontinued Tropical Storm Warnings for the coast of Belize as of this morning.

Weather Underground | Posted by: Jeff Masters, 7:30 PM GMT on October 11, 2010. Data from the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and satellite imagery reveal that the strong tropical disturbance centered near the coast of Honduras just west of the border with Nicaragua is now Tropical Storm Paula. Paula is the 16th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1001 mb and top surface winds of 45 mph in their 2:11pm EDT center fix.

Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with a modest but increasing amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that Paula has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 – 15 knots. Puerto Lempira, Honduras reported sustained winds of 35 mph at 12pm CST this afternoon, with 3.31″ of rain from the storm thus far.

Proximity to land is hampering Paula’s ability to intensify some, and the storm’s northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm’s ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 – 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 – 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. (more…)

Oct 11th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 11th

General Situation: Generally fair conditions will continue today. An area of low pressure will move into the Northwest Caribbean tomorrow. 24hr Forecast: Partially cloudy with only isolated showers. Winds: Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy.  Outlook: Through Wednesday: Cloudy spells with a few showers or thunderstorms over Northern and Coastal areas. Highs: 31°C/87°F  Lows: 23°C/73°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with an area of low pressure near the Honduras / Nicaragua border. Conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Oct 9th 10 Posted in San Pedro Weather. 0 Comments

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast October 9th

General Situation: Northerly airflow continues to support fair and mostly dry conditions. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and mostly clear and cool tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: North to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy.  Outlook: Through Monday: Similar conditions prevail. Highs: 31°C/87°F  Lows: 21°C/69°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00am Hurricane Otto was centered near 29.2 N 58.5 W or about 430 miles east southeast of Bermuda, moving Northeast at 24 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the north Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48hrs.