Jun 12th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
Dry, hot and humid conditions pressed across the country over the past week in an unseasonal stable and dry E’ly to ESE’ly airstream. No tropical wave made an entry over the NW Caribbean, while anticyclonic influence dominated the upper levels. Precipitable water values remain at less than 45 mm of water vapor over Yucatan, Belize and the western Caribbean during the past seven days. Kindly note that with increasing warmer ambient temperature resulting from the effects of an increasing greenhouse effects, we will be experiencing pronounced variability in extreme weather fluctuations (i.e. from extreme wet episodes to extreme, short-lived dry spells).
The Model projections for the next seven days indicate an increasing influx of moisture, as a short-wave, upper level trough moves over the area later on Thursday and Friday. Wave-like perturbations in the low level easterly flow will drift over the NW Caribbean and Belize as we move into the weekend, with a surface low establishing itself just offshore Belize by late Saturday and Sunday. This low will gradually move onshore by Monday, provoking a marked increase in convection. Cumulative rainfall rates will begin at 0.1-0.25mm per 6 hours within 36 hours, as of Thursday evening, increasing to rates of 0.25-0.50mm by early Saturday. Rainfall rates will reach 0.50-0.75mm/6 hours by late Saturday through Sunday, especially over central Belize. The rates will decrease gradually on Monday through Tuesday of next week. Precipitable water values are now on the increase across the region this morning, with a maximum of 60 mm just offshore NE Nicaragua.
Hence expect cloudy intervals later today through Thursday with a few showers and late afternoon isolated thunderstorms. This will moderate the heat and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over many areas by Friday through Sunday as the low forms offshore then moves inland over the weekend. Expect more showers redeveloping on Monday and Tuesday over many areas of the country.
Have a productive week, and don’t allow the oppressive humidity and heat to depress you. Drink healthy fluids and lots of water!
Table 1 below contains a summary of the 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Prediction.
|
Tropical Cyclone
|
NOAA
|
Colorado State (Klotzbach et.al)
|
Weather Service International WSI
|
Average (1995-2009)
|
Historic Average
|
Remarks
|
|
Total No. Storms
|
14-23
|
15
|
18
|
14
|
11
|
|
|
Hurricanes
|
8-14
|
8
|
10
|
8
|
6
|
2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season expected to be very active.
|
|
Major Hurricanes (Cat III or higher)
|
3-7
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
2
|
Neutral or La Nina, warm SST, weak shear, and negative pressure anomalies…
|
Source: Weather Channel/NHC…
RFrutos
Jun 10th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Moist and unstable conditions developing over area. 24hr Forecast: Sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will occur over some coastal areas today. Winds: Easterly at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate. Outlook: Through Saturday: Cloudy spells and a few showers & thunderstorms along coastal areas. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 25°C/77°F.
Jun 9th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Warm and dry weather conditions prevail, becoming a bit more moist and unstable over the next few days. 24hr Forecast: Sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: Easterly at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Friday: Some cloudy spells and isolated showers as the week progresses. Highs: 33°C/91°F Lows: 27°C/81°F.
Jun 8th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
Warm and dry weather conditions prevail.
24hr Forecast: Sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated.
Winds: Easterly at 10 to 20 knots.
Sea State: Choppy/Moderate.
Outlook: Through Thursday: Fair weather continues, with a gradual increase in cloudiness and showers over most areas by Thursday.
Highs: 33°C/91°F
Lows: 27°C/81°F.
Jun 7th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Warm and dry weather conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Winds: East to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Moderate. Outlook: Through Tuesday: Partially Cloudy with he chance of isolated showers. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 27°C/80°F.
Jun 5th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Relatively warm and dry weather conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mainly fair and warm with only isolated showers. Winds: East to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Monday: Similar weather conditions prevail. Highs: 33°C/92°F Lows: 27°C/81°F.
Jun 4th 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: East to Southeasterly airflow supports warm and mostly dry weather. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: East to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate. Outlook: Through Sunday: Partly cloudy with only isolated showers, mainly inland. Highs: 33°C/92°F Lows: 27°C/8o°F.
Jun 3rd 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Mainly fair and warm weather expected as dry conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: East to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate. Outlook: Through Saturday: Partly cloudy with only isolated showers, mainly inland. Highs: 33°C/91°F Lows: 27°C/8o°F.
Jun 2nd 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Drier and more stable conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: East to Southeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy. Outlook: Through Friday: Mainly fair weather with only isolated showers. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 26°C/78°F.
Jun 1st 10
Posted in San Pedro Weather.
0 Comments
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Weather will gradually become drier and more stable over the next 24 to 48 hours. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy periods today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: Light and variable. Sea State: Slight/Light Chop. Outlook: Through Thursday: Mainly fair weather with only isolated showers. Highs: 32°C/89°F Lows: 26°C/78°F.
Tropical Storm Agatha Update:
Intermittent showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean East of the Yucatan are associated with the remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha. Upper-level winds, particularly to the north of the system are not conducive for development and there is a low chance (10%) of this system becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. This system is expected to move little over the next day or so.
