IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Warm and somewhat moist conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today, partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers. Winds: Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate. Outlook: Through Friday: Continuing warm weather with only isolated showers. Highs: 33°C/91°F Lows: 27°C/81°F.
IR Satellite Photo
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: At 6:00 am local time Tropical Storm Alex was inland over the Yucatan and is expected to further weaken. 24hr Forecast: Overcast skies with numerous showers and thunderstorms especially inland, decreasing tonight. Winds: Southwest at 10 to 20 knots with occasional gusts. Sea State: Rough. **All Marine Vehicles should stay in safe harbor** Outlook: Through Tuesday: Overcast Skies with a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs: 29°C/84°F Lows: 24°C/75°F.
Tropical Storm Alex
Date: Friday, 25 June 2010. Time: 7:00 P.M.
At 6:00 pm TD No. 1 was centered near latitude 16.6 N, longitude 83.7 W. This position is about 305 miles east southeast of Belize City. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and further strengthening is likely to occur. TD No. 1 could become a Tropical Storm tonight with winds reaching 40 mph. NEMO has put into effect a Tropical Storm warning for the entire coast of Belize.
4 to 8 inches of rainfall is being predicted which increase the risk of flooding in the south. TD No.1 is moving towards the west‐northwest at 10 miles per hour and is expected to be in our vicinity by late Saturday. The present forecast track takes the system just to the north of Belize with landfall Saturday evening.
Any deviation from the forecasted track is of concern. The public therefore is strongly advised to monitor, stay alert, and take the necessary actions. People along the coast and on the cayes are encouraged to evacuate early, once the NEMO declares a Phase. Mariners and fisher‐folk are strongly encouraged to seek safe harbor. NEMO hereby advises the organizers of any maritime sporting activities over the weekend to postpone such events. Motorists are once again advised that increased rainfall can cause flash flooding and render roads impassable.
The general public is strongly advised to:
Know where you are going and make sure to inform relatives and friends of your plans, whereabouts and intended destination. Public Officers are encouraged to remain alert and ready in the event they need to report for duty. NEMO District Coordinators are convening committee meetings with their District Emergency Committees and are making the necessary arrangements to respond. The Security Forces are prepositioning personnel and equipment.
Note: TD1 has now officially become Tropical Storm Alex.
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: At 6:00 am local time Tropical Storm Alex was centered 195 miles east of Belize City. The storm was heading West-Northwest at 8 miles per hour and is expected to be in our vicinity by this evening. There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the entire coast of Belize. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy to Overcast skies. Numerous showers and thunderstorms over most areas, especially coastal. Winds: North to Northeast at 15 to 25 knots becoming gusty near showers. Sea State: Moderate to Rough. **Small Craft Warning** Outlook: Through Monday: Cloudy to Overcast Skies with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms. Highs: 29°C/84°F Lows: 24°C/75°F.
Computer Models for Invest 93
Latest details
Since the National Meteorological Service (NMS) has been tracking the progress of the strong tropical wave across the Caribbean for the past few days, this evening’s latest outlook represents the first indication of a positive development. The wave has now become a broad area of low pressure center just off the northeast coast on Honduras. The low pressure system has entered a region where conditions are very favourable for development.
Sea surface temperatures over the western Caribbean are averaging near 29°C/85°F.There is an upper level ridge situated just ahead of the surface low. Seems this feature will not diverge much from its current location. The latest model run (18Z) from the GFS forecast product suggests a sustained cyclonic rotation to the low pressure system during the coming days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts the system becoming a tropical depression before the reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. This forecast I tend to agree with. Since reports have been issued on the wave earlier this week, this is the first mention of a probability of 60%.
Time frame for development
As regards the time frame for the low pressure feature to reach Belize, my estimates would suggest the low center will head across the north coast of Honduras Friday morning and produce several showers and thunderstorms during its passage over southern and coastal Belize. Later on Friday the center of the low pressure center will emerge over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras and head northwest to west northwest. During its passage over the waters east of Belize, the chances for further development appear quite good. How much development is a very difficult issue.
Using the guidance from the GFS model product, it seems the system will spend the greater part of Friday afternoon through Saturday morning heading northwest for the extreme northern part of Belize as a well formed low (tropical depression/storm?).The low center should reach the coast of the Southern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday afternoon or evening. Whatever level of development the system attains during this time, will probably hold true till landfall.
Rainfall estimates.
Rainfall estimates from the GFS and NAM model products suggest most rainfall will occur initially over southern and coastal Belize through Friday. Rainfall estimates on my part range between 35 to 45mm for coastal Belize with 10 to 20mm elsewhere. These amounts will drop somewhat for coastal regions (20-30mm) and inland region (5-15mm) on Saturday. On Sunday the focus shifts to northern western Belize where rainfall estimates range from 30-50mm for inland Belize and 10-20mm for coastal Belize. On Sunday rainfall will continue over inland Belize(ranging between 25 -35mm).
Forecaster: F. Tench Jr.
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Strong Tropical Wave approaching the country will lead to a deterioration of conditions over the next 48 hours, which the possibility of further development. 24hr Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies with some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over most areas. Winds: North to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots becoming gusty near showers. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy becoming Locally Rough near storms. **Small Craft Caution** Outlook: Through Sunday: Cloudy to Overcast Skies with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms. Highs: 31°C/88°F Lows: 25°C/77°F.
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Airflow will become moist and unstable over the next 48 hours. 24hr Forecast: Sunny skies today with a few cloudy spells. Partially cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase starting tomorrow morning. Winds: Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Saturday: Outbreaks of shower activity over most areas but especially coastal areas. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 26°C/78°F.
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Generally fair and warm conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. A few showers affect Inland and Southern Areas today. Winds: East to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy. Outlook: Through Friday: Warm conditions with showers mainly in the South. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 26°C/78°F.
IR Satellite Photo
General Situation: Relatively dry but somewhat unstable weather conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight, mostly sunny tomorrow with the chance of isolated showers developing. Winds: East to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Wednesday: Partly cloudy with the chance of isolated showers along the coast. Highs: 32°C/90°F Lows: 26°C/78°F.
