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Tropical Weather Discussion: Invest 95

Invest 95 Tropical Disturbance

Invest 95 Tropical Disturbance

Crown Weather | The tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean has been designated Invest 95-L by the National Hurricane Center. This system will be the main concern for at least the next 7 to 10 days as environmental conditions are favorable for development and I suspect that this will be our next tropical storm (Matthew) by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend.

Satellite imagery this morning has shown some increase in organization compared to 24 hours ago. Pretty much all of the global model guidance forecast that this will develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days. Indications are that this system should track westward over the next couple of days and be located in the western Caribbean by about Friday. The GFS and European models forecast a landfall in Honduras and Nicaragua on Saturday before it turns northward into the northwestern Caribbean early next week. Both the European and GFS models forecast an impact on the Florida Peninsula on either September 30th or October 1st.

The Canadian model forecasts this system to track along the north coast of Honduras from Friday night through Saturday night before impacting Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and Monday. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning. (more…)

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 20th

Belize Weather Forecast

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: Fair and mostly dry conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny today and partially cloudy tonight. Showers will be isolated. Winds: East at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy. Outlook: Through Wednesday: Isolated showers through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highs: 32°C/90°F  Lows: 26°C/79°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am Hurricane Igor was centered about 200 miles N of Bermuda moving NNE at 21 mph with maximum winds of 75 mph. At 3:00am Tropical Storm Julia was centered about 1165 miles W of the Azores moving ENE at 9 mph with maximum winds of 45 mph. An area of low pressure about 400 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 18th

Ambergris Caye Belize Weather Forecast

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: Relatively dry conditions setting in over area. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today with isolated showers. Winds: East at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Monday: Continuing fair weather conditions. Highs: 32°C/90°F  Lows: 26°C/79°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00am Hurricane Igor was centered about 475 miles S of Bermuda, moving NW at 13 mph with maximum winds of 110 mph. At 3:00am Tropical Storm Julia was centered 1500 miles WSW of the Azores, moving NW at 18 mph with maximum winds of 60 mph. Also at 3:00am Tropical Depression Karl was dissipating over the mountains of southern Mexico.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 17th

Belize Weather

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: Lingering moisture persists over Belize. 24hr Forecast: Sunny with a few cloudy spells today with isolated showers and thunderstorms over most areas. Winds: East to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate. Outlook: Through Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 26°C/78°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 3:00pm Hurricane Karl was over the Bay of Campeche centered near Lat19.6 N Long 93.7 W  Maximum winds were 80 mph and Karl was moving to the W at 12 mph. At 3:00pm Hurricane Igor was centered about 405 miles NE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8 mph with maximum winds of 125 mph. Also at 3:00pm Hurricane Julia was centered NW of the Azores, moving WNW at 25 mph with maximum winds of 85 mph.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 16th

Belize Weather Forecast

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: TS Karl is weakening as it crosses the Yucatan, but is still producing moist and unstable conditions in Belize. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy with some showers over most areas and cloudy tonight with showers in coastal areas. Winds: South to Southeast at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts near thunderstorms. Sea State: Choppy/Moderate becoming locally rough at times. Outlook: Through Saturday: Showers become isolated over most areas heading into the weekend. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 25°C/77°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00pm Tropical Storm Karl was centered near Latitude 19.2 N Longitude 90.1 W, or about 50 miles SE of Campeche Mexico. Maximum winds were down to 40 mph, and Karl was moving to the WNW at 15 mph. At 3:00pm Category 4 Hurricane Igor was located about about 505 miles ENE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 8 mph with max winds of 135 mph. Also at 3:00pm Hurricane Julia was centered 665 miles WNW of the Cape Verde Islands, moving NW at 17 mph with max winds of 125 mph.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 15th

Belize Weather

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: TS Karl will produce rainy weather over most of the country. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times today with some showers over most areas and cloudy tonight with showers in coastal areas. Winds: North to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Friday: Cloudy at times with showers over most areas. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 25°C/76°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Shower activity associated with an area  of low pressure located about 315 miles east of Chetumal  continues to  become better organized. This system is moving  west-northwestward at 15 mph. There is a 90% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. At 9:00am Category 4 Hurricane Igor was centered about 710 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum winds of 135 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Also at 9:00am Hurricane Julia was centered about 355 miles west northwest of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum winds of 85 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 14th

Belize Weather

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: An area of low pressure will produce wet weather over portions of Belize tonight and tomorrow. 24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times today with some showers over most areas and cloudy tonight with showers in coastal areas. Winds: North to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Light Chop/Choppy. Outlook: Through Thursday: Cloudy at times with showers over most areas. Highs: 31°C/88°F  Lows: 25°C/76°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Shower activity associated with the area of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean Sea has become a little better organized. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the next couple of days, and has some potential to develop into a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow evening. At 3:00am Category 4 Hurricane Igor was centered about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum winds of 135 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph. Also at 3:00am Hurricane Julia was centered about 330 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum winds of 75 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph.

Caribbean disturbance 92L

Invest 92L

Caribbean Disturbance 92L

Weather Underground | Tropical disturbance 92L over the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula, has become more organized this morning. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. There is no evidence of a surface circulation on satellite loops this morning, but the cloud pattern of 92L has become more circular, with low-level spiral bands developing on the west and north sides of the storm. 92L has a moderate but increasing area of intense thunderstorms; these are bringing heavy rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba this morning.

Forecast for 92L

Rains from 92L will spread over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Wednesday, bringing peak accumulations in the 4 – 8 inch range. Lesser peak amounts of 2 – 4 inches are possible over northern Honduras. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 – 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.7°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L; this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L, and will continue to do so. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Thursday at 40%; I’ll give it a 50% chance. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday afternoon, when it will move over Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. (more…)

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 13th

Belize Weather Forecast

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: Relatively moist conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny with cloudy periods today and partially cloudy tonight. Chance of  isolated showers in coastal areas in the afternoon. Winds: East to Northeast at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Tuesday: Cloudy at times with isolated coastal showers. Highs: 32°C/90°F  Lows: 25°C/76°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: At 12:30pm Hurricane  Igor was centered near 17.7N and 46.1 or about  1120mls east of Northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 135mph and Igor was heading west at 14mph.  A broad area of low pressure over the east central Caribbean has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Daily San Pedro Belize Weather Forecast September 11th

Belize Weather Forecast

IR Satellite Photo

General Situation: Relatively warm and unstable conditions prevail. 24hr Forecast: Mostly sunny with cloudy periods today and partially cloudy tonight. Chance of  isolated showers in coastal areas this morning. Winds: Easterly at 5 to 15 knots. Sea State: Choppy. Outlook: Through Sunday: Similar conditions prevail. Highs: 32°C/90°F  Lows: 26°C/78°F.

Tropical Weather Outlook: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Igor, located about 915 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Showers and Thunderstorms have increased in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Environment conditions appear to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form as the system moves westward. There is a high chance (60%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone on the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

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